Taking Down AT&T

BoingBoing Gadgets is one of my favorite non-political blogs. Joel Johnson, the primary author of BoingBoing Gadgets, did an appearance on an AT&T owned and distributed talk show in which he spoke out and tried to get the somewhat flummoxed host to address the merits of AT&T’s recently announced plans to filter the content of all internet traffic for copyrighted or illegal or immoral material. Johnson’s full post is here.

This is a great example of someone taking the opportunity to speak when they find themselves in front of a microphone. That’s exactly what Johnson did:

The staff circled me just off-stage after the first shoot. “You realize Hugh doesn’t actually work for AT&T, right? He can’t speak for AT&T.” I told them I understood, but reminded them the entire production is underwritten and broadcast exclusively by AT&T.

That’s the point—I wasn’t being a twerp just for the sake of being one. This is a critically important issue, one that deserves as much attention as can be drawn to it, especially in a venue where AT&T and its customers are sure to listen. And as the reaction of the crowd to my questions showed, no one wants AT&T rifling around in their communications. The only way to stop them from doing so is to speak up whenever we have the chance.

I hope you’re paying attention, Senators Obama and Clinton.

For more info on AT&T’s plans to filter the internet, read Brad Reed’s piece at Network World and Thomas Mennecke’s interview of AT&T exec James Cicconi for Slyck News.

Giuliani Is Done

Regardless of any Waterloo-like stands in Florida, Rudy Giuliani is done. Why? Because his “momentum-proof” tri-state area firewall is gone, as best signified by the fact that Giuliani is now significantly behind John McCain in New York, according to the Sienna poll. Trend in parentheses (PDF link).

McCain: 36% (15%)

Giuliani: 24% (48%)

Romney: 10% (7%)

It gets worse: Last month, Giuliani was up 33% on McCain in the Sienna poll. That’s right, there was a 45% swing in New York state against Rudy Giuliani in one month. New York Republicans don’t even like Giuliani any more:

For the first time in a Siena poll, Giuliani had a higher unfavorable rate _ 48 percent _ than favorable just six years after the Sept. 11 attacks. McCain was viewed favorably by 56 percent of New Yorkers.

Another NY poll out today from Marist gives McCain an even bigger lead: 34% to 19%.

Giuliani campaign manager Mike DuHaime had previously called Giuliani’s leads in New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut “momentum proof.”

“Some of those leads are momentum-proof at this point,” he said. He stressed Giuliani’s margins in the New York tri-state area of New Jersey, New York and Connecticut versus what he called Romney’s “precarious” lead in New Hampshire where he is known, having been governor of neighboring Massachusetts.

Giuliani now trails in New York (by 12-15%), New Jersey (by 2-4%), Connecticut (by 23%), and Pennsylvania (by 16%), another February 5th neighbor to New York.

If Giuliani is going to lose badly in New York, Connecticut, and Pennsylvania, and likely lose in New Jersey as well, he has no base of support. His only hope is in Florida.

So, how does Florida look for Rudy? Not good – he trails in every poll that’s come out in the last ten days save one, which shows a statistical tie. The Insider Advantage poll from last Thursday showed Giuliani with a one point lead over McCain and Romney. The Rasmussen poll out today has him down five to Romney.

As I said above, Rudy Giuliani is done.

Cross posted at The Right’s Field

I Don’t Care If It’s Hard

Tristero, writing at Hullabaloo, has a different take on Krugman’s column today on Obama and reminding people that Republicans are wrong:

Krugman’s final point is that all the Dem candidates are missing an excellent opportunity to debunk the rightwing myths that have made it so difficult for liberal, Democratic, and even moderate candidates to wield national influence. I think that is absolutely true. But that is far more difficult for a serious national candidate to do than it is to say. Let’s not forget that in Krugman’s own paper serious people don’t include those favoring withdrawal from Iraq. That means that most of the world, including its political and cultural leaders, do not hold realistic-enough views on Iraq to be worthy of Mr. Gordon’s keen attention.

In other words, the “acceptable” mainstream discourse really is, as the liberal blogosphere has argued since time immemorial, incredibly restricted. It is doubtful that any potential candidate who criticized St. Ron of Hollywood would ever be granted the standing the press has willingly accorded the less-than-worthless Huckabee. To criticize Reagan is the height of unseriousness.

Of course, I’m not saying that’s appropriate. I’m saying that is how corrupted and claustrophobic our public discourse has become. I don’t think any candidate who dared to bash Reagan would receive that much coverage – good, bad, or indifferent. S/he’d be ignored. [emphasis added]

As I see it, Tristero’s point is that criticizing Obama for not taking his unique opportunity as a presidential candidate to reshape how America thinks about the Reagan years is unfair because while Obama should do this, he might lose his veneer of seriousness with the press if it did so. A less charitable reading of this would be that speaking truth to power is hard, so Obama is justified for not doing it. I’m glad Tristero isn’t saying that this is “appropriate,” because I think it’s an awful way for a leader to assess how and when he speaks on a subject.

I think Tristero is probably right about the negative response any criticism of Reagan would receive from the press. But stepping back from the blogger argument about how the media Heathers decide what’s OK and not OK for people to say before they wander off into Kucinich land, I think our concern in this instance should be focused more on the power that a “serious national candidate” has to do and say things that challenge conventional wisdom.

If Barack Obama can’t stand up and speak out on Reagan with his unique platform as a front-running presidential candidate, who ever will be able to? The standards of decorum usually prevent sitting presidents from bashing previous presidents, so don’t expect any ground changing critique of Reagan to come from Obama once he’s in office.

All I’m looking for – and I think Krugman, too – is leadership from Obama. We have a whopping two people in this country that we as progressives and Democrats can hang our hats on to see change brought at the highest levels. Asking Obama and Clinton to act like leaders is not a huge request to put at the feet of people who aim to lead our whole country.

Yesterday Obama proved that he is capable of speaking truth to an audience that may not receive it well. Pam Spaulding at her blog and Stephanie Hunt in the comment here, among others, have suggested that doing so could actually hurt Obama’s chances to win votes in South Carolina. That is as tangible a consequence, if it materializes, as facing a skeptical press.

Tristero is right, there is risk to challenging the conventional wisdom about Ronald Reagan, most of which plays out in how the press will respond to such heresy. But asking someone who purports to be a transformational leader to actually stand up and lead in a transformational way is not only a reasonable request, but a predictable one. Being a leader means doing hard things because they’re the right thing to do and effectively no one else in America has been afforded the same set of tools to speak out on an issue.

I fundamentally disagree with Tristero that it is “far more difficult for a serious national candidate to do than it is to say.” Sure, there will be blowback, but we’re talking about someone who wants to be President of the United States. A national candidate has the microphone needed to say something on a subject that changes the way people think about that issue. A House or Senate candidate can’t do that. Obama has a legion of press that record and replay every word he utters. Every statement or criticism of a bold faced name by Obama becomes a swirling media story that commands attention. If there is someone better suited to challenge the status quo and have the country listen than Barack Obama, I look forward to finding out who that person is.

This Is Not Shrill

Paul Krugman:

This is, in short, a time when progressives ought to be driving home the idea that the right’s ideas don’t work, and never have.

It’s not just a matter of what happens in the next election. Mr. Clinton won his elections, but — as Mr. Obama correctly pointed out — he didn’t change America’s trajectory the way Reagan did. Why?

Well, I’d say that the great failure of the Clinton administration — more important even than its failure to achieve health care reform, though the two failures were closely related — was the fact that it didn’t change the narrative, a fact demonstrated by the way Republicans are still claiming to be the next Ronald Reagan.

Now progressives have been granted a second chance to argue that Reaganism is fundamentally wrong: once again, the vast majority of Americans think that the country is on the wrong track. But they won’t be able to make that argument if their political leaders, whatever they meant to convey, seem to be saying that Reagan had it right. [emphasis added]

Krugman really gets at two points that I’ve been trying to make quite well here. First, Republican ideas for governance, be it in economics, in foreign policy, in social policy, or military matters, just don’t work. Republican administrations leave the American people worse off. This should be cause for Democrats to stand up for what they believe in with pride.

Second, those people with the opportunities to speak out – our presidential candidates – have to be the ones leading by example. John Edwards’ message against corporate power is a good example of what it looks like when a proud Democrat stands up to conventional wisdom about how Republican ideas are right. Edwards has been so successful in that messaging that even Hillary Clinton is co-opting it, as evidence by this New York Times article.

Narratives change when the people with the power to change them step forward to do so. In the Democratic Party, the two people with the greatest power to change how our country thinks about policies are Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. I’m in agreement with Krugman that Obama’s Reagan comments are troubling (one of my first posts on this blog last week was on the subject). The narrative says Reagan was a good President and Reaganomics worked. But Reagan wasn’t a good President and his policies left our nation in a very bad place.

The best way for Obama or Clinton to frame their administration’s for being treated as successful is for them to take the time now to define what success does and does not look like. Who gets left behind? Who is enriched? What role will the government play in the rise or fall of the poverty rate in America? Answering these questions now by way to trashing everything the Reagan years stand for would be a good way to set the tone for how people can look to whatever either of these Democrats accomplish if the succeed in winning the White House. And if we can recognize this as an important opportunity to be seized by Democrats in 2008, it’s far easier to understand why Obama’s Reagan comments are not only troubling but damaging to his ability to succeed (and be treated as a success) if he is elected President.

Funny

Adam Nagourney thinks Rudy Giuliani is a “major candidate.”

I’d only be comfortable continuing to call Rudy Giuliani a “major candidate” if Nagourney also designated Ron Paul and Fred Thompson as “major candidates.” But he doesn’t. His list is McCain, Romney, Huckabee, and Giuliani.  Adding Paul and Thompson to that list would mean the entire field consists of “major candidates,” so including Giuliani, from an intellectual consistency standpoint, requires the remainder of the GOP primary to take place in Lake Wobegone.

Nagourney avoids intellectual consistency in favor of the groundless assertion that a candidate with less votes nationwide and less money than Ron Paul is a “major candidate.” I’m willing to grant that Ron Paul’s performance and fundraising capacities do put him in the realm of major candidate, but even to concede that to Paul does not make it necessary to grant the same thing to Giuliani.

In short, Nagourney is making things up.

More Like This, Please

Pam Spaulding reports on a speech Barack Obama gave today at Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta. This is the church where Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. preached and it is one of the nation’s premier black churches. In the speech, Obama spoke to the black community, calling for them to stand up to bigotry within their community towards gays, Jews, and immigrants. Here’s a passage that stands out:

I’m talking about a moral deficit. I’m talking about an empathy deficit. I’m taking about an inability to recognize ourselves in one another; to understand that we are our brother’s keeper; we are our sister’s keeper; that, in the words of Dr. King, we are all tied together in a single garment of destiny.

It’s not easy to stand in somebody else’s shoes. It’s not easy to see past our differences. We’ve all encountered this in our own lives. But what makes it even more difficult is that we have a politics in this country that seeks to drive us apart – that puts up walls between us.

For most of this country’s history, we in the African-American community have been at the receiving end of man’s inhumanity to man. And all of us understand intimately the insidious role that race still sometimes plays – on the job, in the schools, in our health care system, and in our criminal justice system.

And yet, if we are honest with ourselves, we must admit that none of our hands are entirely clean. If we’re honest with ourselves, we’ll acknowledge that our own community has not always been true to King’s vision of a beloved community.

We have scorned our gay brothers and sisters instead of embracing them. The scourge of anti-Semitism has, at times, revealed itself in our community. For too long, some of us have seen immigrants as competitors for jobs instead of companions in the fight for opportunity.

Every day, our politics fuels and exploits this kind of division across all races and regions; across gender and party. It is played out on television. It is sensationalized by the media. And last week, it even crept into the campaign for President, with charges and counter-charges that served to obscure the issues instead of illuminating the critical choices we face as a nation.

Obama’s full remarks can be read here.

I’ll be honest and say that I don’t know enough about GLBT politics in the African American community to adequately offer my own analysis , so I’ll take Spaulding’s analysis as coming from an authority that I respect with knowledge on it. She writes:

These words are so necessary, but you can best believe he is the only candidate delivering speeches in honor of Dr. King who is willing to say it directly to members of the black community. This topic has always been a perceived as a third rail topic for the other leading Dem candidates, Clinton or Edwards — they are, like many whites, particularly if they see themselves as allies, dread being seen as pointing out the evils and hypocrisy of such bigotry in the black faith community, even as wrong and tragic as it is on its face.

What I see in this and what I hope I can continue to see from Obama is that he recognized that he has a special platform to speak to an important issue and he used took it. I say that not exclusively in reference to his race or how he, as Spaulding says, he is singularly suited to deliver this message to the black community. Rather, for me the importance is in Obama using his platform as a presidential candidate to do more than could be done by people without the privilege of being a front running presidential candidate.

Sometimes leadership means looking around and recognizing that more people will listen to you than to anyone else, that your words will change the national debate, and that it’s your time to step forward and use your unique opportunity to lead before you enter the White House. Barack Obama did that today. I hope he continues to do it on many other issues before many other communities.

I’ll even suggest one for him: join Chris Dodd to filibuster retroactive immunity if it comes before the Senate this week.

Bush v. Gore, Nevada Caucus Edition

While I was on my way out to dinner last night, something very interesting happened: Barack Obama secured more delegates from Nevada than Hillary Clinton. Disconnected from the outcome of the popular vote, the Nevada Democratic Party awards delegates on a geographically weighted basis.

Chris Bowers at Open Left makes a strong case for why we need to recognize that Barack Obama won Nevada and Hillary Clinton did not (as well as why we need to call Iowa Obama/Clinton/Edwards and New Hampshire a tie between Obama and Clinton).

Imagine if, the day after the 2000 election, the national media simply didn’t care about what happened in Florida, and instead acted as though Al Gore had won the election because he won the popular vote. Imagine if all cries from the Bush campaign about something called “The Electoral College” fell on deaf ears, and everyone just acted like Gore won and the popular vote was the only thing that mattered. States? Who cares about the results of individual states? Only the popular vote matters, dummies!

While that would have been perfectly fine with me, since I think the Electoral College is an anti-democratic institution that favors the will of geographic areas over the will of American citizens, it isn’t what happened. The reason it isn’t what happened is that everyone knows Presidency in America is determined by electoral votes, not popular votes. As such, electoral votes, not popular votes, are the main focus during any Presidential general election.

However, today the media decided that the Electoral College doesn’t matter, and because Al Gore won the popular vote he won the election. Or, more accurately, the media decided that because more delegates to the Nevada state Democratic Party convention in April indicated they would support Clinton than Obama, it doesn’t matter that the way the state delegates are arranged by geography actually projects to Barack Obama sending more pledged delegates from Nevada to the Democratic National Convention. Just as the Constitution indicates that the Electoral College, not the popular vote, determines the winner of the Presidency, Democratic Party by-laws make it quite clear that delegates to the national convention, not the popular vote and not delegates to the state convention, determine the winner of the presidential nomination campaign. Strangely, however, even though Obama is projected to win the most delegates to the national convention, Clinton is projected as the winner.

Bowers goes on to make two points that I whole heartily agree with:

First, the Democratic presidential nomination system is not particularly democratic, since the system of delegate selection is different than the concept of one person one vote. Second, I have learned that the national media is not actually covering the Democratic presidential nomination campaign.

I woke up prepared to write a post defending Clinton’s win on the popular vote because it was decisive and because the majority of delegates Obama is likely to get remains a projection for the time being. But it isn’t the popular vote in a particular primary that gets sent to a massive tally board at the Democratic National Convention. If that were the case the Democratic primary would effectively be determined by national popular vote, excepting for the states that hold caucuses. Of course, that’s not what happens.

Likewise, the argument against Obama not retaining delegates who will vote for him between now and May when Nevada’s 25 delegates are chosen is premised on a disjointed assumption: there will be a clear frontrunner by May and it will not be Barack Obama. Making that assumption today about who delegates coming from Nevada to the DNC will be in support of based on who wins subsequent primaries outside of Nevada strikes me as contrary to the point of having a democratic event on January 19th in Nevada to determine apportionment of delegates to the DNC.

If the media was really covering the nomination of the Democratic Party’s choice for President, they would have reported Obama as the winner of Nevada. Unless and until the Nevada delegate selection in May produces a block of delegates that is for Clinton in larger numbers than Obama, I’m continue to hold that Obama has won Nevada.

Also, now that Obama has finished first in Iowa and Nevada, and tied for first in New Hampshire, I think we should be asking the question, is it possible for Obama to run the table in the Democratic primary? Has Obama already overcome a full year of dedicated media coverage of the anointed candidate, Hillary Clinton? To answer my own questions, no to the former and yes to the latter. This is going to be a real dogfight, but we have to recognize beyond a doubt that Obama has proven he can beat Hillary Clinton.

Change

Via Sadly, No!

Wouldn’t it be great if the 2008 presidential election to determine who will succeed the man likely to be rated as the worst president in American history was about something other than an amorphous concept that has been so diluted as a brand that almost every candidate on both sides of the aisle is running, to some degree or another, on the platform of “change”?

In this particular order, I would be much happier if the 2008 presidential election was primarily about the war in Iraq, restoring the Constitution, and getting health care for every American.

I’m sure defenders of the candidates (and let’s be clear, that is most definitely a plural term) pushing change as their dominant narrative would argue that by “change” they mean their candidate would do stuff on all of those things. And it’d be different. That may be true, but it’s not what the election has been about. It’s been about change and experience. Or, as I’m arguing, nothing.

To be sure, I’m an equal opportunity cranky observer. What’s true about “change” is also true about the experience meme. Like change, it is watered down and fails to capture anything substantive.

Things get really disjointed when you have candidates like Bill Richardson, Joe Biden and Chris Dodd (and sometimes Hillary Clinton) trying to shoehorn themselves as people who represent both change and experience. Double whammy! You have thoughtful candidates with diverse plans for the major issues trying to shrink wrap themselves in two conflicting yet vacuous brands that resist discussion of these very issues that make these candidates worthwhile. Of course, Biden, Dodd, and Richardson have all ended their campaigns, unable to find traction on substance amidst narratives lacking in explicit meaning.

Mostly, this is just a point to recognize that our country is worse off when politics is adjudicated by who is putting forth the best marketing and not who is putting forth the best plans for how they will govern.