I’m not an economist, but I read a lot of economists, particularly economists who saw the current shit show coming from a ways off and have been consistently right in their assessments of why various attempts by first the Bush administration and now the Obama administration are likely to fail. When Paul Krugman writes this about the new Geithner bank plan, I get worried:
Why am I so vehement about this? Because I’m afraid that this will be the administration’s only shot — that if the first bank plan is an abject failure, it won’t have the political capital for a second. So it’s just horrifying that Obama — and yes, the buck stops there — has decided to base his financial plan on the fantasy that a bit of financial hocus-pocus will turn the clock back to 2006.
It’s not just Krugman that is having a bad reaction. Duncan Black is bringing his trademarked gallows humor out in full force. John Cole does the same. James Galbraith call Geithner’s plan a “Rube Goldberg device.” As Digby says, “we are dealing with magical thinking again,” which would at least make the Goldberg Geithner contraption make sense.
There’s often a lot of funny talk about having faith in markets or not scaring markets, as if saying the wrong thing will somehow offend the Dow Jones Industrial Average and cause everyone’s stock portfolios to tumble. I’ve never understood that. But what I do understand today is that the apparent inability for leaders at the highest level of government to grasp the severity of the problems facing us is likely to produce bad results for the future. Using big words like “sub-prime residential mortgage backed securities” and “$1 trillion” can be much scarier than words like “nationalize” or “fundamental reevaluation.”
I just hope that either Geithner turns out to be right or the severity of our financial circumstances compels the Obama administration to master enough political will to do whatever it has to do when this big shot from Geithner misses. I don’t know where we are if they only get this one shot and choose to use it on something that everyone who’s been right so far says is a horrible idea…