Donovan taking credit for NV legislation?

In an op-ed in the Las Vegas Review-Journal which is largely about refinancing tools, HUD Secretary Shaun Donovan gives the Obama administration a heavy does of credit for a recent drop in Nevada foreclosure filings.

Too many homeowners in Nevada are still underwater or struggling to meet their mortgage, but the state has made real progress. Thanks to tools this administration has provided, foreclosure filings throughout the state have fallen 67 percent since last April.

Unfortunately it looks like the Obama administration is claiming credit for something they have zero right to. Last November, after Nevada passed an anti-robosigning law, foreclosures dropped 88%. The law made robosigning illegal, making it functionally impossible for banks to foreclose on the overwhelming majority of homeowners. That had less than nothing to do with the Obama administration.

Foreclosure filings in Nevada plunged in October during the first month of a new state law stiffening foreclosure-processing requirements.

Slightly more than 600 default notices were filed against homeowners through Oct. 25 in the state’s two most-populous counties, Las Vegas’s Clark County and Reno’s Washoe County. That was down from 5,360 in September, or an 88% drop, according to data tracked by ForeclosureRadar.com, a real-estate website that tracks such filings. Default notices represent the first step in processing foreclosures.

Nevada’s state Assembly passed a measure that took effect on Oct. 1 designed to crack down on “robo-signing,” where bank employees signed off on huge numbers of legal filings while falsely claiming to have personally reviewed each case. Banks suspended their foreclosure filings one year ago and have gradually restarted them after those and other improper foreclosure-processing practices surfaced.

Among other steps, the Nevada law makes it a felony—and threatens to hold individuals criminally liable—for making false representations concerning real estate title. Individuals are also subject to civil penalties of $5,000 for each violation.

Foreclosures stopped because banks in Nevada can’t prove that they have a right to foreclose on Nevadans without running risk of going afoul of this law. Felonies are serious things and most bankers and their attorneys don’t want to go to jail for fraudulently foreclosing on someone. That’s the biggest reason foreclosure filings are down in Nevada and it has nothing to do what little the Obama administration has done on housing.

The absence of a desire for strong regulators

Matt Stoller, writing at Naked Capitalism, has a really important observation about the two political parties and their shared lack of desire to have strong regulators looking at the banking sector.

The hearing was about District Court Judge Jed Rakoff’s refusal to sustain the Citigroup settlement with the SEC.  What was interesting about it, from a political standpoint, is that all three witnesses, including the witness brought in by the Democrats, opposed Rakoff’s move and supported the SEC’s position.  And one of the top Democrats on the committee, Carolyn Maloney, gave a long-winded opening statement in which she basically took the position that forcing an admission of wrongdoing was just too hard.  In other words, many high-level Democratic politicians, for all their gnashing of teeth about the need for regulation, aren’t being truthful.  They don’t want regulation, they want to be seen as wanting regulation.  And the Republicans, while they want to be seen as the party against regulation, are actually quite happy having regulators they can work with, regulators who protect the banks from state or local level action.

The argument over regulation or deregulation, in some sense, misses the point.  We need regulation, obviously.  But we also need strongly principled regulators.  And neither Barack Obama nor Mitt Romney has any appetite for that.

Stoller’s observation is important in that it crystallizes the sentiment of both parties being captured by Wall Street in an operationally specific way. And in Stoller’s telling, it’s hard to not come away with the impression that the Democrats are a good deal more cynical than the Republicans on the issue of regulation.

Banks have no right to profit

Yves Smith:

Preventing blow-ups like the JPMorgan “hedge” that bears no resemblance to any known hedge isn’t difficult. What makes preventing it difficult is that banks that exist only by virtue of state-granted charters — and more recently, huge transfers from the public — have persuaded public officials and regulators that they have a God-granted right not just to high levels of profit but also high levels of employee and executive compensation.

Maybe it’s time to recognize that these firms are too big and in too many complex businesses to be managed. Jamie Dimon was touted as a star who could supervise a sprawling firm running huge risks, and he fell short because no one can do the job adequately. A less disaster-prone financial system requires more simplicity and redundancy. Re-instituting Glass-Steagall or other variants on the narrow banking theme isn’t a full solution, but it would make for a good start.

Strings need to be attached to entities that exist solely because public funds are used to support them and guarantee them. When the auto industry was bailed out, it came with strict supervision and oversight. That makes sense. What is completely nonsensical is that no similar oversight and expectation was put on the banking sector after 2008’s financial collapse.

Debunking Glass-Steagall Pushback

There has been a recent push by Wall Street’s defenders to undermine public support for the return to Glass-Steagall, the Depression era law which banned federally insured commercial banks from doing investment banking. The issue has come to light following the JP Morgan Fail Whale trades and the recognition that even the weak Volcker Rule in Dodd-Frank would be insufficient restraint for banks which failed to learning anything from the 2008 financial collapse (well, other than both political parties will bail them out with no change in behavior expected in return).

Aaron Ross Sorkin of the Times’ Dealbook does the yeoman’s work for Wall Street, pushing a bogus attack on Glass-Steagall. Sorkin’s  argument is that the collapse was driven by investment bank failures and had nothing to do with commercial banking, therefore there is no need to separate risky investment banking from commercial banking:

But here’s the key: Glass-Steagall wouldn’t have prevented the last financial crisis. And it probably wouldn’t have prevented JPMorgan’s $2 billion-plus trading loss. The loss occurred on the commercial side of the bank, not at the investment bank.

But this isn’t the point and Dean Baker nails Sorkin on it.

The crisis, which is an “economic crisis” not a “financial crisis” was caused by the collapse of an $8 trillion housing bubble. This bubble was driving the economy by sparking both a construction boom and a consumption boom. When house prices came back down to earth, these sources of demand evaporated and there was nothing to replace them. It’s a fairly simple story for those of us who learned arithmetic back in third grade.

Glass-Steagall played no direct role in the crisis or the buildup to it. Nonetheless, it does get to heart of one of the big unnecessary freebies that the government gives to the financial sector. The point of the law was that if you held government guaranteed deposits then there should be restraints on the sort of risks you can take.

Americans for Financial Reform gets at the restraints on risk as well:

Problems in the mortgage market triggered the collapse because of a vast structure of financial market trades based indirectly on the value of those mortgages. That structure included trillions of dollars in synthetic derivatives bets (synthetic CDOs), as well as trillions of dollars in short-term (overnight) funding tied directly to traded valuations. That was the structure that collapsed and took the economy down with it.

Second, no one is trying to – or could – ban risk from banking. The goal of the Volcker Rule is instead to change the form and location of risk. The rule moves one particular type of risk –proprietary speculation in the financial market ‘casino’ – out of the giant banks at the center of the economy and into smaller hedge funds and other speculators who can fail without threatening the system. The Volcker Rule permits banks to continue risk taking in the form of lending and investment, as well as low risk forms of market making.

There’s pushback by Wall Street allies on both the Volcker Rule and Glass-Steagall because Wall Street was caught with its pants down on the Fail Whale trade. The Volcker Rule is weak and not even in effect, but Wall Street has spent months and millions of dollars lobbying for its repeal. Want proof that the push back is about repealing pending regulations? Look no further than what one Wall Street lobbyist told Politico:

How much has the JPM trading loss changed the lobbying landscape around Volcker and the rest of Dodd-Frank? One top industry hand told M.M. last night: “It just blew up everything I’ve been working on.”

Get that? The Fail Whale exposure has caused it to become harder for Wall Street lobbyists to get Congressional members,  staff  and regulators to go along with the gutting of regulations which haven’t even been put in place yet. Thus we see Sorkin out to carry water for those who want to make regulation of the banking industry irrelevant. I will say this about the banksters, they don’t have an ounce of shame.

Elizabeth Warren comes out swinging on financial accountability

Last year liberals found a small handful of state Attorneys General to elevate as heroes for their efforts to investigate robosigning and hold banks accountable for committing foreclosure fraud. That cohort, which eventually acquiesced to the Obama administration and got on board a very weak settlement deal with the nation’s five largest banks, included New York AG Eric Schneiderman, NV AG Catherine Cortez Masto, and DE AG Beau Biden, among others. Schneiderman’s status as a liberal hero is now seriously being called to question by people who had previously put a lot of faith in him, myself included. Part of my takeaway from the last year is that while elected officials and candidates should be leading on these issues, words aren’t enough. Actions are what will determine whether or not these people are worthy of inspiring hope.

With that as a preface, Elizabeth Warren is on something of a tear going after the failures of recent regulatory reform and ostensible accountability efforts to adequately rein in Wall Street recklessness and criminality. She told Politico that Jamie Dimon should be removed from the New York Federal Reserve’s Board and sees the JP Morgan Fail Whale trade as a complete failure of regulatory reform:

“The argument for Glass-Steagall is that banking should be boring. Risk-taking should be separated from ordinary consumer banking. Banks are different from every other kind of company. They hold our money in trust and they get government guarantees. That fundamentally changes the game. The trade-off is they agree to engage in only low-risk activities. JPMorgan just showed that is not what they are doing.”

“I find it very interesting that at first the defenders [of JPM] said ‘Well, even if the Volcker Rule were in place this would not have violated it.’ First of all, I think people would be surprised [Volcker is] not in place. And it’s not in place because of this guerilla war banks have fought against it. … But the correct response is not that [the JPM trader is] OK because it wouldn’t violate the Volcker rule. The correct response is that the Volcker Rule isn’t strong enough and we need Glass-Steagall.”

While these are good sentiments and in line with what Warren has been saying for a while, they’re not that far outside what has become standard discourse by liberal Democrats since the announcement of JP Morgan’s $3 billion and growing trading loss.

However in an interview with David Dayen of FDL News Warren makes incredibly strong statements on the failure of the Obama administration and the mortgage fraud task force to hold Wall Street bankers accountable for the financial crisis.

FDL News: Can all of these issues with regulation and oversight of Wall Street ever be successful without them involving handcuffs in some manner? The efforts to hold the banks and their executives accountable have all resulted in slap-on-the-wrist fines and settlements. We’re four years on from a financial crisis that wrecked the US economy, one rooted in multiple levels of fraud, and no top executive has gone to jail for it.

Warren: And that is disgraceful. No one has been held accountable. Americans know that all the way down to their gut. The financial crisis has been treated as if it were a tsunami or a snowstorm, or a natural act for which no human being had any direct participation. The people who broke the economy should be held accountable. It’s as simple as that. And that means criminal investigations, civil investigations. Without that, it’s not possible to clean the system and rebuild it.

FDL News: Are you confident that the current set of investigations, including this task force co-chaired by Eric Schneiderman looking into mortgage abuses – there’s been a lot of controversy about it, about staffing and resources – are you confident that the investigations in place today will actually lead to the necessary accountability for Wall Street for their role in the crisis?

Warren: I am not confident. No. And that’s the answer to your question. The American people are pushing for more accountability. They need to keep on pushing until it happens.

It is significant for a top targeted Democratic Senate candidate to be saying she has no confidence in what was hyped as a major investigation by the President in the State of the Union and by AG Schneiderman when he assumed a role within it. Dayen notes that it “is extremely damaging to the attempt to pass off the RMBS working group as something legitimate” for Warren to say this.

As I wrote yesterday, President Obama is unlikely to convince independent swing voters in key swing states who think he hasn’t done enough to hold Wall Street accountable unless and until the handcuffs come out. Warren is saying that this is unlikely as things currently stand.

Hopefully the pressure from the polls and key Democratic candidates like Warren serves to light a fire under the administration and the mortgage task force. There is clearly no ingrained desire within the Obama administration to uphold the rule of law when it comes to bank criminality; one can only hope public political embarrassment will be a motivating factor. Handcuffs for banksters as part of a cynical election year ploy is far preferable to continued inaction.

Brutal swing state housing poll for Obama

Cross posted at AMERICAblog

Campaign for a Fair Settlement, a liberal housing group which formed to pressure state Attorneys General like California’s Kamala Harris to not agree to a bad robosigning settlement deal, has released a poll that paints a brutal picture of how voters in swing states view President Obama’s handling of the housing crisis. The poll also shows that voters think the President hasn’t done enough to hold banks accountable and that criminal behavior by Wall Street has driven the crisis. The poll surveyed independent likely voters in Pennsylvania, Florida, Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina, all of which are states which have been devastated by the foreclosure crisis. From the poll release’s key findings.

  • The percentage of independent likely voters who disapprove of Obama’s handling of the housing and mortgage crisis ranged from 48% in Pennsylvania to 70% in Nevada, while those approving ranged from 21% in both Nevada and Arizona to 34% in North Carolina.
  • The percentage of independent likely voters who say Obama has not done enough to hold banks accountable for their role in the housing collapse ranged from 60% of respondents in both North Carolina and Florida to 73% in Nevada.
  • The percentage of independent likely voters who say that the economic crisis results at least in part from criminal actions by Wall Street executives ranged from 64% of independent voters polled in North Carolina to 76% in Pennsylvania.

The poll data is viewable here.

David Dayen notes that the problem is even more stark when you look at the partisan breakdowns within the poll:

Where this really shows up is in the partisan breakdown. There’s a partisan split in the polling, with Democrats generally supportive of the President and Republicans opposed. But independents are strongly negative on this question, worse than the overall numbers, from a 26-48 split in Pennsylvania, to 34-56 in North Carolina, to 28-49 in Florida, to 29-52 in Arizona, to a whopping 21-70 in Nevada.

The takeaway from this is pretty clear: the housing crisis could be a very big issue in the 2012 presidential election. The voters who will likely swing the swing states identify serious failings by the Obama administration and if they are convinced to vote on these issues, things would be pretty bad for the President.

In the statement, Nish Suvarnakar, campaign manager for Campaign for a Fair Settlement, says, “Obama can help homeowners, his campaign and the overall economy by more aggressively pursuing banks’ criminal acts and supporting meaningful solutions for underwater homeowners.” The Obama administration hasn’t done the work it has needed to do on housing and has ignored pressure from the left to take real policy actions, but perhaps they’ll be responsive to political pressure. If voters who care about housing policy and bank accountability exist as a bloc which can swing the election, the Obama campaign would be remiss to ignore them. Criminal indictments of bank executives for fraud and criminality relating to the foreclosure crisis would be a big step in the direction of showing the administration takes peoples’ concerns seriously. It’s unlikely that another milquetoast (or worse) program will convince people he’s serious – it’s time for the handcuffs to be broken out. Short of that, I’m not sure how the President will convince these swing voters in these key swing states that he should be trusted to better address the housing crisis in the future.

Konczal on Too Big To Fail

Mike Konczal has a very good post on the announcement of JP Morgan Chase’s multi-billion trading loses and what it means for our legal ability to deal with Too Big To Fail banks. Konczal writes:

There are two ways to look at the relationship between the Dodd-Frank financial reform framework and JP Morgan’s loss disclosure. One is that it shows the need for a strong implementation of Dodd-Frank broadly and the Volcker Rule specifically, which is designed to separate prop trading from large, risky financial firms. Marcus Stanley of Americans for Financial Reform has a great post up discussing what happened, how the principle of the Volcker Rule should work in this situation, and the threats it faces. Dodd-Frank is designed to make the financial markets more transparent and robust to shocks through such mechanisms as expanding clearing requirements for derivatives and reducing interconnectedness between large financial firms. It is also designed to make it less likely that any individual firm will collapse by having stronger capital requirements for larger financial firms and eliminating certain business lines they can participate in through the Volcker Rule. This is crucial for a Too Big To Fail firm like JP Morgan.

But the second is to acknowledge that businesses run profits and they run losses. There is something to a conservative like Kevin Williamson’s remark that “The odd thing about this is that it is now considered somehow scandalous when a business loses money. It’s a scandal when banks make profits, and it’s a scandal when they make losses.” On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero. Though it was clear quickly at 5 p.m. Thursday that JP Morgan wasn’t in danger of collapsing, if things had been different it could have failed.

This illustrates the need for a mechanism to allow firms to fail in a way that fairly allocates losses to the right parties. The way corporations fail in this country is a series of legal choices we’ve made, and we found in the fall of 2008 that the mechanism we have for a shadow-bank financial firm failing — Chapter 11 bankruptcy — dragged down the entire system with it. Hence the move to bring in the FDIC to make sure a financial firm fails in a way compatible with fairness. The FDIC has special powers — advance planning and living wills, debtor-in-possession financing and liquidity, making payments to creditors based on expected recoveries, keeping operations running, the ability to transfer qualified financial contracts without termination, and the ability to turn up or down regulations going into a potential resolution based on prompt corrective action — appropriate to what our 21st century financial system needs.

I think it’s worth noting, though, that these aren’t “legal choices.” They are political choices and they are choices in morality. Fundamentally these laws speak to the question of who government serves at a time when large corporations fail. What we saw in 2008 and 2009 (and, really, since then too) is that political elites have by and large chosen to serve financial elites first and foremost. Not only are the interests of banks protected, but they are protected through the public treasury. What we have now with Title II of Dodd-Frank, which governs the winding down of TBTF banks and who pays for it, is the perfect example. Matt Taibbi recently covered how Wall Street helped achieve weak financial regulatory reform, particularly around who pays for future bailouts for failed banks.

In a nod to FDR, Title II would have forced major financial companies to pay $19 billion into an FDIC-style fund that would cover the cost of any future bailouts. But then the balance of power in the Senate was upset by the election of Republican Scott Brown to Ted Kennedy’s seat in Massachusetts. As the clock wound down toward the bill’s passage, Brown insisted on a change: Instead of making ginormous companies pay $19 billion in advance, the FDIC would first use taxpayer money to pay for any bailouts, and then spend years trying to recover that money from Wall Street by means of an assessment process so convoluted that you could grow a four-foot beard in the time it would take to understand it. Republicans managed to wrangle support, in conference, for the “bailout now, pay later” idea, and it made its way into the final bill.

Fast-forward to 2012. Rep. Paul Ryan, the self-styled Edward Scissorhands of Republican budget slashing, gathers the GOP leadership together and tells the chairman of each committee that he wants them, collectively, to come up with $261 billion in cuts. Ryan demands $35 billion of the cuts come from the Financial Services Committee, which oversees much of the regulatory apparatus that would enforce Dodd-Frank. The committee is now chaired not by the reform bill’s namesake, Rep. Barney Frank, but by median-intellected Spencer Bachus of Alabama, who last year voted to delay Dodd-Frank reforms designed to prevent swaps disasters like the one that drove his home turf of Jefferson County into bankruptcy.

Bachus’ solution to coming up with massive budget cuts? Eliminate the entire Title II section of Dodd-Frank. If another­ bank failed, Bachus argued, it would take way too long to recoup the bailout money from Wall Street through that crazy assessment process that Republicans themselves had insisted on only two years earlier. In the end, the logic went, taxpayers would wind up footing the bill anyway, so better just to scrap the entire plan to have the FDIC pay for the bailouts upfront – thus “saving” taxpayers some $22 billion.

The logic, of course, is complete nonsense. Without Title II, we’d be right back where we started – rushing to implement an expensive bailout in the midst of a crisis, without any way to make Wall Street repay the money. But because Democrats had preemptively surrendered on the original idea of forcing Wall Street to pay into an FDIC-style kitty ahead of time, Republicans were now in a position to push the whole bailout plan off the pier via a simple budget resolution.

Title II of Dodd-Frank is also something, as Konczal notes, that Republicans in the House of Representatives voted to repeal last week. A weak and ineffective provision that had meager measures to actually make the banks pay for a bailout and would likely cost taxpayers (at minimum) billions was supported by Democrats. And even that is too much for Republicans.

It’s great that the JP Morgan Chase Fail Whale trade is re-surfacing discussion of financial regulatory reform. But to this point we’ve only seen political elites at the service of financial elites, deploying regulations in a way that shows their preference for wealth to be preserved in the hands of a few bankers (regardless of how often those bankers fail in their business operations). I don’t expect that to change any time soon, at least without the actual crisis of another Too Big To Fail bank failing and being bailed out with hundreds of billions of dollars from the public’s coffers.

Taibbi on Chase’s $2b loss

What Matt Taibbi says:

f J.P. Morgan Chase wants to act like a crazed cowboy hedge fund and make wild exacta bets on the derivatives market, they should be welcome to do so. But they shouldn’t get to do it with cheap cash from the Fed’s discount window, and they shouldn’t get to do it with money from the federally-insured bank accounts of teachers, firemen and other such real people. It’s a simple concept: you either get to be a bank, or you get to be a casino. But you can’t be both. If we don’t have rules to enforce that concept, we ought to get some.

Bill Black on the awful NYT coverage of Hollande’s election

This piece by Bill Black at Naked Capitalism is must-read. It’s the most thorough push-back I’ve seen against the panicked response in many American media outlets towards Hollande’s election in France and the rejection by the French public of austerity in a time of recession. Black notes that the Times’ reporters should read Paul Krugman, a Nobel prize winner who writes for their own opinion page, and listen to him, not the repeatedly wrong austerity hawks.

The dogmatic austerity devotees who consistently get it wrong are treated as undisputed authority while the New York Time’s own expert who has consistently gotten it right, and has a Nobel Prize in economics, is ignored.

Read the whole thing – it’s a very strong and important piece.