Carville: Obama should prosecute banksters

Via John Aravosis, Democratic uber-strategist James Carville thinks President Obama should start panicking, fire lots of advisers, make a consistently strong case “like a Democrat,” and, most importantly in my book, start prosecuting Wall Street crooks. Carville writes:

Indict people. There are certain people in American finance who haven’t been held responsible for utterly ruining the economic fabric of our country. Demand from the attorney general a clear status of the state of investigation concerning these extraordinary injustices imposed upon the American people. I know Attorney General Eric Holder is a close friend of yours, but if his explanations aren’t good, fire him too. Demand answers to why no one has been indicted.

Mr. President, people are livid. Tell people that you, too, are angry and sickened by the irresponsible actions on Wall Street that caused so much suffering. Do not accept excuses. Demand action now.

I think this is exactly right. Holding Wall Street accountable would be a dramatic sign to the public that the President is on their side and, importantly from an electoral standpoint, on their side in a way the Republicans are not. Of course the continued choice to not prosecute banksters is very clear in its meaning as well.

Obama backing off Big Three cuts?

Maybe, according to the Wall Street Journal:

“As the president has consistently said, he does not believe that Social Security is a driver of our near- and medium-term deficits,” White House spokeswoman Amy Brundage said in a statement.

Changing the inflation formula so Social Security benefits grow more slowly and raising the Medicare eligibility age were ideas Mr. Obama had been willing to accept this summer, when he was trying to strike a deficit-reduction deal with House Speaker John Boehner (R., Ohio).

Instead of raising the Medicare eligibility age, the White House is considering recommending cuts to providers and possibly increasing premiums for wealthier recipients, people familiar with the discussions say. It’s also possible the president would propose changing the inflation calculation for other government programs, which currently use the same measure as Social Security does. The White House declined to comment on those discussions.

One of the problems with the President validating the idea that Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security need to be “saved” through cuts is that it opens the door for very different meanings as to how savings can be achieved. I’m sure there are ways to reduce waste in Medicare and Medicaid that won’t affect the delivery of care. But that’s a very different conversation than one about raising the age people qualify for this care. Opening the door to cuts puts everything on the table and allows Republicans to use the exact same frame as Obama to push ideas which will make more Americans rely on private insurance longer and at higher cost.

I really hope the President doesn’t go down the path of cuts to the Big Three social support programs. But I’m not going to take the word of a White House spokesperson as gospel, as only a few months ago the President himself was calling for the exact same cuts that were reported on yesterday. The proof will be in the proposal the President actually makes to Congress and the text of legislation that he asks them to pass.

Obama floating cuts to Big Three social programs

The Financial Times reports that President Obama is going to propose cuts to Medicaid, Medicare and Social Security as part of his deficit reduction proposal.

Barack Obama is expected to lay out a plan next week that would cut several hundred billion dollars from Medicare and Medicaid, the large government healthcare schemes for the elderly and the poor, as part of a pitch to cut future deficits by more than $1,500bn.

Senior White House officials said the US president would base a detailed blueprint for fiscal reform, which is to be delivered on Monday, on an earlier speech he delivered in April on deficit reduction.

The announcement could create tensions within the Democratic party, which has traditionally staunchly defended Medicare. Mr Obama’s fiscal proposal will be released just one week after the president unveiled a separate plan to raise more than $450bn to pay for a jobs bill that senior officials said would be the president’s singular focus in coming weeks.

Mr Obama’s plan could also feature a change in the way the US government measures inflation, switching to a less generous chained-consumer price index. The biggest impact of this measure – which could save between $250bn and $300bn over ten years – would be felt by recipients of Social Security, the retirement scheme.

Obama announced in his jobs speech that he would seek cuts to Medicaid and Medicare, so while that isn’t really surprising, it’s still incredibly disheartening. Cutting Social Security’s COLA benefits is also really destructive.

If a Republican president proposed cuts to Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security, the outcry and opposition from liberal groups would be defining. Democratic members of the House and Senate would fight tooth and nail to stop the cuts. Labor would turn out their members to protest the cuts. The airwaves would be flooded with ads hitting Republicans for this assault on the social safety net and online advocacy groups would bombard the White House with calls, emails, and faxes from outraged members.

But when the cuts are proposed by a Democratic president, the odds of this response seems radically reduced. Labor unions were universally supportive of the President’s jobs speech, praising him for turning towards job creation and infrastructure investment. I don’t hold out hopes that there will be an equally swift outpouring of statements criticizing Obama for trying to pay for tax cuts by cutting Social Security, Medicaid and Medicare.

There are obvious electoral problems with a Democrat leading the charge to cut the Big Three programs. It’s a Nixon going to China moment, only this time it’s a bad thing. But more importantly, these cuts will have a devastating human affect. These are programs that keep people out of poverty. These programs care for sick people. They are crucial to maintaining a middle class in America. The idea that we have to cut these programs to “save” them was treated as a laughable oxymoron by progressives laughed when Republican politicians said it. If Obama goes ahead with these proposals, he should face the exact same response from the left as his ideological predecessors in the Republican Party received.

More AGs drawing lines in the sand on bank settlement talks

Originally posted at AMERICAblog

Minnesota Attorney General Lori Swanson has written a very powerful letter to Iowa AG Tom Miller, NY AG Eric Schneiderman and an associate AG at the Department of Justice stating where she stands on the fifty forty-five state robosigning settlement talks with the nation’s five largest banks. In it, she calls for a settlement with “teeth”. She goes on:

[T]he banks should not be released from liability for conduct that has not been investigated and is not appropriately remedied in any settlement. For example, a settlement that focuses on mortgage servicing standards should not release the banks or their officers from liability for securities claims or conduct arising out of the securitization of mortgages or liability arising out of the use of the Mortgage Electronic Registry System (“MERS”), where those claims have not been investigated or fairly addressed through the settlement. In addition, I am sure we all agree that the banks and their officers cannot and should not be released from criminal liability in any civil settlement

This is strong stuff. Swanson also supports the FHFA lawsuit against the banks and calls on her colleagues not to do anything to impede it. She writes, “We should fully welcome and support all legitimate efforts to investigate the banks and to hold them accountable for their unlawful activity, which has been enormously destructive to this country and our citizens.”

Swanson joins Schneiderman, Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada, Beau Biden of Delaware, and Martha Coakley of Massachusetts as AGs who have stood up for strong settlement demands and their right to investigate. Biden has recently come under criticism by Delaware’s Democratic Governor Jack Merkell, who wants Biden to back off the banks and not try to investigate them. Biden’s response, fortunately, is strong:

“My job is to protect homeowners, investors and all Delawareans affected by the abuses of the mortgage industry that created this economic crisis. I do not settle matters that have not been investigated, and there remains a lot of work to be done in understanding the scope of the mortgage industry’s bad conduct that has hurt so many. Our economy works the best when everyone plays by the rules, and we must hold those who brought our financial system to the brink of collapse to account.” [Emphasis added]

There’s clear momentum in the direction of holding banks accountable. As more attorneys general come out against a broad settlement on foreclosure and securitization fraud, the less likely any settlement becomes. Kudos to AGs Swanson and Biden for standing up to the banks and for their constituents.

Dem Sen. Kerry stops fundraising while on Super Congress

Originally posted at AMERICAblog

A rare moment of political integrity emerges from the Super Congress process, thanks to Senator John Kerry:

“I’m not meeting with a lot of lobbyists; I’m meeting with people I choose to meet with, who can inform me, assist in the process of crunching numbers and dealing with consequences, and so forth,” Kerry told the Globe last week in his first extensive interview about his committee membership.

“I will not fund-raise; I will raise no money,” the senator told the Globe. “I’m not raising any money while the committee is working.”

Asked why, Kerry said: “Because I don’t want people to think that I’m being leveraged by contributions. I just don’t want want the appearance of money being associated with anything I do on this.”

The Super Committee became a lobbyist free-for-all the moment it was formed, with industries large and small throwing millions of dollars towards getting their views heard by members of the Super Congress. That includes lots of fundraising events and it is every bit as slimy as it sounds. Good for John Kerry.

Of course, we will have to wait and see if the lack of lobbyist meetings and big dollar fundraisers nets a more progressive result from Senator Kerry and the committee as a whole. But at least on paper, this is a positive step.

Census: US poverty & uninsurance rates hit new highs

According to the US Census, poverty and uninsurance rates are at all-time highs.

The Census Bureau reports the number of Americans in poverty jumped to 15.1 percent in 2010, a 27-year high.

About 46.2 million people, or nearly 1 in 6, were in poverty. That’s up from 43.6 million, or 14.3 percent, in 2009. It was the highest level since 1993.

The number of people lacking health insurance increased to 49.9 million, a new high after revisions were made to 2009 figures. Losses were due mostly to working-age Americans who lost employer-provided insurance in the weak economy. Main provisions of the health overhaul don’t take effect until 2014.

It’s time for political elites to start paying attention to how much pain has already been inflicted on the poor, working, and middle classes of America in this economy. Stop with the deficit hawking, stop pushing austerity and the help American people now. People have felt more than enough pain for one economic downturn.

Alternatively, we can just embrace more austerity!

A bit on the Obama’s jobs speech

After the deficit deal passed a month ago, I made this prediction about the jobs pivot:

If I had to put money down, I’d predict that if any jobs bill moves forward, it will consist of more than 50% tax cuts, and probably more likely, a four or five to one ratio of tax cuts to stimulative spending measures.

Of the $447 billion in the jobs segment of Obama’s proposal, we have this breakdown:

O.K., about the Obama plan: It calls for about $200 billion in new spending — much of it on things we need in any case, like school repair, transportation networks, and avoiding teacher layoffs — and $240 billion in tax cuts.

Keep in mind that Obama is rolling out a two-part plan here. First, he previewed the American Jobs Act as a largely job creation piece of legislation. But within that preview, the President also made clear that he will pair this with a deficit reducing agenda that exceeds $1.5 trillion. From the speech:

The agreement we passed in July will cut government spending by about $1 trillion over the next 10 years. It also charges this Congress to come up with an additional $1.5 trillion in savings by Christmas. Tonight, I am asking you to increase that amount so that it covers the full cost of the American Jobs Act. And a week from Monday, I’ll be releasing a more ambitious deficit plan — a plan that will not only cover the cost of this jobs bill, but stabilize our debt in the long run.

Given that the GOP mantra, albeit wrong, has been that tax cuts reduce the deficit, it’s not hard to imagine there being further tax cuts emerging from the Super Committee. So at minimum, I was right about the lower bounds of the jobs pivot being at least 50% tax cuts. But this is just the proposal and what is passed (if anything passes) will likely look very different from what we heard last night. Obviously there’s plenty of time and space for the ostensible jobs bill to end up with an even greater majority going towards tax cuts.

The larger issue is that while I strongly support action around job creation (particularly in infrastructure spending and aid to states), the idea of paying for it by cuts to Medicare and Medicaid, let alone other federal social spending programs, is intensely unacceptable to me. While the President may have delivered the most forceful and passionate speech of his tenure in office, replete with genuine historical praise of past accomplishments of liberal governance, using it as a jumping off point for more deficit reduction and cuts to the social safety net is not only bizarre but dangerous. Cutting Medicare to save it is as intellectually honest and persuasive as bombing for peace or fucking for virginity. It just doesn’t work like that. And I can’t say playing the role of Cassandra makes me feel good, either.

Kilgore v Stoller

In Salon, Ed Kilgore responds to Matt Stoller’s piece on Obama’s destruction of the Democratic Party. Kilgore basically says that a primary of Obama isn’t likely because Obama still has strong support among base voters, though he looks at personal approval ratings, not the 32% of Democrats who want a primary. Kilgore also dismisses Stoller’s historic examples of past primaries of incumbents, essentially on the grounds that these happened a long time ago.

But what stood out to me in Kilgore’s piece was his explanation for why he thinks elite leaders of progressive institutions aren’t really unhappy with Obama. He writes:

While there has been plenty of angry grumbling about the administration’s performance in labor circles, there are no signs of “dump Obama” sentiment. Indeed, far from launching a big, dangerous foray into presidential nominating politics, many labor leaders are talking about a strategic shift into state elections where GOP governors and legislators are presenting a more visible existential threat to their constituencies and their influence.

The meaning of this shift towards local races is that labor leaders are choosing to take money that could be spent supporting Obama’s reelection and spending it elsewhere. It is a sign of base discontent and one that makes the chances of Obama’s reelection smaller. Given that one of Stoller’s main points that Kilgore is actually attempting to respond directly to is that Obama remains electable, this is not an effective example for Kilgore.

Like Stoller, I think the odds of there being one primary or many favorite son candidates is negligible. But Kilgore’s piece really doesn’t get at the reasons for that. If Kilgore really wanted to rebut Stoller from a fact-based place, he would cite the near-total capture of progressive interest groups by the Democratic Party. Absent an analysis focused on that, Kilgore really is just being dismissive out of hand towards a thoughtful and original analysis of the 2012 election and what Democrats could be doing to express their displeasure with Obama.

Press reaction: Rick Perry, shallow thinker

Reading some of the reviews of last night’s Republican presidential primary debate, I can’t help but praise the Washington press corps for the various, creative ways they say Rick Perry makes George W. Bush look like a strong candidate for the Fields Medal. Here’s a sampling:

Jonathan Chait, The New Republic:

Perry treats questions as interruptions. … His total liberation from the constraints of reason give Perry a chance to represent the Republican id in a way Romney simply cannot match.

Roger Simon, Politico:

What his answers sometimes lacked in logic was made up for in enthusiasm, and after some initial nervousness -he gripped the sides of his podium as if he were hanging onto a life raft – Perry settled down to his talking points.”

David Frum, Frum Forum:

I was shocked and surprised at how unprofessional Perry’s debate performance was. Nervous, irritable, stuttering, floundering, he missed opportunity after opportunity.

What confidence can anybody have that Perry will come to work as president any better prepared than how he come to this debate or that he’ll show more insight and intelligence than he did in this first national outing ? Not much.

Aaron Blake & Chris Cillizza, Washington Post:

One of those questions is whether he can survive the detailed policy discussions. Challenged Wednesday to talk about which climate scientists he most agreed with in his doubts about global warming, Perry stumbled through a pained response that included a comparison between global warming doubters and Galileo.

While doubting global warming won’t necessarily hurt him in a Republican primary, the exchange showed that Perry can get tripped up. While he may have clear the bar set for his first debate, he also showed he can stumble in a way that Romney has not.

Gail Collins, New York Times:

Rick Perry, possibly the first major presidential candidate opposed to the direct election of U.S. senators since the advent of the Bull Moose Party. He did not do anything superweird at his maiden presidential debate, unless you count bouncing up and down and cocking his head a lot. Or claiming that the reason a quarter of the Texas population has no health insurance is because of government interference.

Cross-posted from AMERICAblog Elections: The Right’s Field

Obama’s Power: Dems on deficit committee now want more than $1.5t in cuts

Originally posted at AMERICAblog

There is an emerging consensus amongst the Democrats who will serve on the deficit commission (aka Catfood Commission 2, Electric Class Warfare) that the mandate of $1.5 trillion in deficit cuts is insufficient.

Democrats on the new joint deficit Super Committee will seek more than the $1.5 trillion in deficit reduction they’ve been tasked with finding, in order to help offset some of those costs.“All of us would like to set as a target for ourselves even more than $1.5 trillion,” Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D-MD), who’s also the top House Democrat on the Budget Committee, told reporters at a Tuesday Capitol press conference.

For those not paying attention, President Obama (after Warren Buffett said it in his much-linked NYT op-ed) called for the deficit commission to go beyond $1.5 trillion in cuts. The Democrats on the commission, including liberals like Xavier Becerra, have moved to be where the President has been saying the commission should go. When Obama gives a speech tomorrow night (and a subsequent one in following days more specifically about deficit cuts), it will direct Congress as to where he thinks these cuts beyond $1.5 trillion should come from. Sadly, the answer seems to be Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid.

David Dayen points out that this is a pretty clear rebuttal to the notion that the President is not capable of shaping the course of legislative and policy debates, especially with regard to Congress as a coequal branch of government.

If you listen to [Obama’s] public statements, he clearly wants this tax cut and spending cut agenda to go forward. And now, his Democratic colleagues on the Catfood Commission, even the putatively liberal ones like Xavier Becerra, are mimicking him. That’s because a President has a lot of influence and power.

Take this as a reminder that President Obama is not weak and certainly not dis-empowered from pursuing the agenda he wants to pursue.