Month: August 2010

HAMPed

David Dayen continues to do incredible reporting on HAMP and how it isn’t working for most people who try to use it. What’s particularly important with this piece is that it is built around an individual account of the experience of a homeowner trying to use HAMP to avoid foreclosure. Talking about the success or failure of the mechanisms of a large program is abstract, but Dayen’s reporting here makes the challenges of the program very accessible. One of the biggest challenges consumers have is understanding the financial machinations that surround them – from their mortgage to their credit cards to small business loans. Indeed, our financial crisis was contributed to greatly because systemic complexity lead many Wall Street firms to fail to understand what exactly it was that they were doing.

HAMP should have given consumers an advantage in dealing with banks to keep their underwater homes by simplifying the process and giving clear pathways for a consumer to get cram down or other changes to their mortgage that allowed them make payments and stay in their home. But what we see in articles like Dayen’s is that the process was not more transparent for consumers, which created existentiell levels of uncertainty persist for people who enter the program. This is a really big problem.

Krugman vs Bond Gods

In today’s column, Paul Krugman asks:

So here’s the question I find myself asking: What will it take to break the hold of this cruel cult on the minds of the policy elite? When, if ever, will we get back to the job of rebuilding the economy?

I wish it was likely that sanity came with the flick of a switch and the government fully dedicated itself to stimulating the economy by funding projects for Main Street America and creating jobs for working class Americans. But I don’t think we’ll be able to magically turn off the determinative fear of the Invisible Bond Gods.

Instead, as I tweeted last night to Krugman, I think a more likely scenario for breaking the hold is this: The economy doesn’t get any better by November 2012 and a Republican candidate defeats President Obama. With control of the White House, the GOP pushes for more austerity measures, provides no stimulus, and the American economy is pushed into a deeper recession. Democrats then win back the White House in 2016 by openly campaigning on creating jobs through large federal government stimulus spending. At that point, political and economic necessities would make it impossible for the Invisible Bond Gods to maintain a stranglehold on economic policy makers.

I really hope this isn’t the course we go on, as it promises at minimum six years of unthinkable economic pain inflicted on 90% of America. But given the complacency in DC about 9.5+% unemployment, I find it hard to believe sudden change is likely. We could be in for a long haul here, people, and the only potential upside is that the longer we all suffer, the more likely it is that someone with power will actually wake up to the need to take bold action and help working Americans.

FPI: US must publicly pursue a clear Tibet policy

Ellen Bork, the Foreign Policy Initiative‘s Director of Democracy and Human Rights has a really great piece on how the Obama administration is failing to pursue a clear Tibet policy, to the detriment of Tibet and possibly in violation of statute. Of note from the piece, which should be read in its entirety:

The administration’s downplaying of Tibet undermines Chinese liberal intellectuals and activists who have criticized Beijing’s policies on Tibet at great risk to themselves. After the March 2008 uprising, a Chinese think tank called the Open Constitution Initiative issued a report challenging Beijing’s position that the riots were incited by the Dalai Lama and criticizing the crackdown that followed. This organization was later shut down and its staff harassed.

In addition, 29 intellectuals, lawyers and activists signed an open letter in March 2008 supporting dialogue with the Dalai Lama and urging and end to official propaganda vilifying him and Tibetans. One of them, Liu Xiaobo was later prosecuted on subversion charges for his writings and sentenced to jail for 11 years.

American officials should know by now that nothing is gained by acquiescing to China’s overbearing behavior on Tibet or any other issue. Adapting to Beijing’s “correct understanding” of Tibet undermines not only the Dalai Lama and human rights for Tibetans, but also America’s own “core interest” in seeing these respected in Tibet and China as well. To be credible, America must clearly and publicly pursue a well-established policy on Tibet.

Out of Iraq

Raven Brooks is asking why there isn’t more hoopla and celebration on progressive blogs about the announcement that all US combat troops are out of Iraq.

I’ve been writing in opposition to the Iraq War for coming on six years (I started blogging in late 2004). When I went to work for Chris Dodd on his presidential campaign, it was spring 2007. A supplemental war funding vote was coming up and Dodd was introducing a resolution to have all US combat troops out of Iraq by March 2008. Dodd was to the left of the entire caucus, save Russ Feingold, and the more consensus liberal Democratic position in the Senate was to have all troops out by the end of 2008. At that time, with the insurgency in full swing and a burgeoning civil war taking place between Sunni and Shia, nine months meant a lot. Of course Dodd’s provision was defeated and Congress was never able to put funding on the war continuing conditional on an exit plan.

That happened three years ago. And the fairly moderate position would have had US troops out of Iraq almost two years ago.  In the interim, while things in Iraq are better than 2007, there is still strife, violence and discord. Yes, President Obama kept his campaign pledge to withdraw combat troops by the end of this year. But as time as past, Afghanistan, our forgotten war during the days of fighting in Iraq, has become a total disaster. The President has escalated the war in Afghanistan and our commitment there has only grown deeper, despite it being almost nine full years old.

What’s worse, as has always been said to be the case by DFHs online, combat troops is something of a euphemism. We still have over 50,000 American troops in Iraq. There are tens of thousands of “contractors” doing the jobs that US troops ostensibly should be doing, like protecting US diplomats and civilian officials. It’s hard to imagine a world wherein the exit of combat troops from Iraq means no more American troops will die in Iraq, nor will American troops no longer be reasonable for killing Iraqi civilians.  In short, today will likely look just like yesterday for over 50,000 American troops and millions of Iraqis.

Am I glad that the administration has brought many US troops out of Iraq? Yes, absolutely. But I guess I still don’t know, after more than seven  years, why we went to Iraq and what our presence accomplished for the people of Iraq, besides toppling a tin cup dictator. I don’t know what President Obama will say to the parents of the next US soldier, airman, or marine who is killed in Baghdad. And I don’t know that how this war ending is indicative of a larger vision for foreign policy and military policy from the Obama administration, specifically vis a vis Afghanistan. Pulling troops out of Iraq now was the right thing to do and it is reassuring to see the administration do the right thing. But this is something that I really wish had happened years ago.

Auerback on Dems Putting Social Security at Risk

Writing at Naked Capitalism, Marshall Auerback puts forth a devastating critiques of how Democrats are creating the conditions which put Social Security at risk. A key part of this analysis is that the Deficit Commission was put together and appointed by President Obama (after the Democratic Congress refused to do so). There are a lot of different ideas leaking out of the commission, from austerity to cuts to Social Security and Medicare. But Auerback writes, “No mention of Republicans getting on board. This is self-immolation, plain and simple.”

Auerback goes on to question the basic validity of the Democratic Party continuing to identify with FDR, given the close relationship so many Democrats have with Wall Street. I don’t think this is a fair analysis, simply because as we saw yesterday there is a multitude within the Democratic Party. But I do think it’s fair to place blame on the corporatists with close ties to Wall Street, as well as the conservative Blue Dogs and New Dems who have continually pushed for cutting taxes on the wealthy and reducing benefits for working class Americans. Of course, Auerback notes the culpability of the present administration in driving both the conversation and putting people in charge who are known opponents of Social Security.

I also think Auerback’s description of the President’s Saturday radio address attacking Republicans for wanting to privatize Social Security (which is something of a non sequitor from the current conversation) as “cynical” is accurate. Obama could be leading on this and really strengthening Social Security, framing it around providing a promise for a safe and secure retirement to countless Americans who worked hard throughout their lives. Simply framing the debate around protecting from privatization is, as Auerback says, politics as usual.

Masking Differences

In an otherwise awful column, Maureen Dowd makes a relevant point:

There are deep schisms within the Democratic Party that were masked for a time, first by Bush and then by Obama’s election. Now that the Democrats have the presidency and the power and can enact legislation, it’s apparent that the word progressive is kind of meaningless.

I wouldn’t go so far as to say that the word progressive is meaningless, but Dowd is right that we huge schisms are being exposed between the grassroots of the Democratic Party and centrist, Beltway types. These aren’t new differences. There has been a long-running war between the online progressive movement (and more largely, progressive movementarians) and the timid wing of Democrats who think running as DLC, Third Way, Republican Lite politicians is a winning movement. Basically it’s the difference between people who think good policy leads to good politics and we should be proud of our ideas and those who think that while the American public can handle crazy Republican ideas, we can only shade slightly to the left if we want to be electorally viable. Again, these aren’t new distinctions and anyone who paid attention to what liberal bloggers have been saying for the last eight years would know that these differences exist.

But a mask is definitely coming off. Maybe it’s that the press is finally noticing these differences. Maybe it’s that leaders of the Democratic Party pretended that these differences didn’t exist and that tribal opposition and fear of Republicans would force liberals  to remain together, regardless of the policy content at hand. And certainly, when groups like the Third Way and politicians like Harold Ford Jr. call themselves progressive, the word is losing meaning. But this isn’t news.

It’s not that the word progressive is meaningless. It’s that it is meaningless to people who adopted it because it provided shelter from attacks from the right on the word liberal. Maybe the cover this word provided is disappearing, but that doesn’t mean long-standing differences are new differences and in that, Dowd is right.

Dalai Lama: Voices for Independence Growing Stronger

This is interesting:

With over 600,000 people, including hundreds of Chinese, following him on networking site Twitter, the Dalai Lama has said the non-resolution of the Tibet issue is making the voices of those seeking independence of Tibet from China grow stronger.

Answering questions from his Chinese followers on Twitter, which he joined last month, the Dalai Lama said: “There are forces within our community such as the Tibetan Youth Congress who criticise our Middle Way policy and demand complete independence (for Tibet). It seems their voices are growing stronger (these days).

“We cannot blame them for this since our successive efforts to bring about a mutually beneficial solution (to the issue of Tibet) have failed to produce any positive results and, under such a situation, their viewpoint is gaining momentum (in our society).”

The Dalai Lama whose middle path approach for the last few decade has been seeking autonomy for Tibet under China, was replying to a question from a Chinese follower who wanted to know whether Tibetans will resort to violence and terrorist activities after his death.

The 1989 Nobel Peace Prize winner was submitted 317 questions recently by 1,558 Chinese people through renowned Chinese writer Wang Lixiong. A total of 11,705 Chinese netizens voted for 10 most important questions out of which this was listed as the most important question.

For the Dalai Lama to speak publicly and recognize the growing call within the Tibetan community both inside and outside of Tibet for independence, and not autonomy, is a strong statement about where Tibetans are these days. It’s also a good sign in that it speaks to the volume of calls for independence being able to penetrate the Dalai Lama’s inner circle (or dare I say, bubble).

What’s more, the Dalai Lama is rightly placing blame on the Chinese government for their failure to be good faith negotiating partners with the Tibetan Government in Exile. The lack of progress in these occasional dialogues only serves to solidify the desire among Tibetans for real independence; the Chinese government has shown that they are not ready and willing partners with Tibetans. What is clear is that the Dalai Lama is cognizant of the consequences of fruitless dialogues with the Chinese government. The results are not going to go in the direction that the TGIE, nor even the Chinese government, want. Delay only strengthens the resolve for independence, as it validates the critique of Rangzen (independence) supporters of the Chinese government not having any interest in finding a solution to the Tibet question. Obviously it isn’t satisfying to be right when the lives of millions of people hang in the balance, but what this all shows is that those of us who have advocated for Rangzen have accurately understood the Chinese government’s long-term strategy in their relationship with the TGIE: delay and stall. To borrow a phrase from Dennis Green, they are who we thought they are.

Schrei on Ladakh Landslides

My friend Josh Schrei happened to be traveling in Ladakh, a historically Tibetan region in northern India, when the area was hit by uncharacteristic rain storms that prompted massive flooding and mudslides. It is likely that over 1,000 people were killed in the landslides, which fundamentally changed the region. The quotes that follow from Josh are from a series of emails he’s sent, though I expect if he gets the opportunity, he will post them online. Josh reports (Update: at the Huffington Post):

If the scope of the devastation isn’t clear or is overshadowed by Gansu, let me just say that all the economic development that Ladakh has enjoyed over the last 15 years is totally gone. Every river valley and over a dozen villages are either effected or totally wiped out. Death toll will be above 1,000, and, given the remoteness here, probably never accurate. As of today the tourist death toll is 23. It is going to take them years and years to rebuild and they need help.

He describes the rarity of the situation:

I returned from Pangong to Leh to find something rather unusual. It had been raining there, which it almost never does. Ladakh is a desert, absolutely dry and free of vegetation, the lush river valleys fed entirely by Himalayan snowmelt. The monsoon weather of the Indian subcontinent is blocked by the vast wall of mountains to the south. For there to be successive days of rain was almost unheard of. I asked my guesthouse owner about it, and he was unequivocal in his answer. “It never does this. Global warming.”

And here is Josh’s description of the storm’s aftermath:

In one hour, the land of Ladakh was forever changed. This vast country shifted. Every valley in the Ladakh range of the Himalaya saw high mountains dislodge themselves downwards. Tragically, the way Ladakh is constructed, every village clings to a river valley of mountain snowmelt, and when these mountains dislodge themselves downwards, there are people living underneath.

The next morning I heard from my guesthouse owner that there had been “some problem” at the bus station from the rain. Instinctively, I grabbed my camera and headed down. As I went, rumors grew of the scale of the “problem.” One person along the route said that the Leh bus station was “gone.”

Yes, the bus station was gone. A vast river of mud and rock had torn through central Leh, ripping apart houses, demolishing shops, flattening structures to the ground. Buses were tossed about like toys, slammed up against buildings, wedged under trucks, flattened and twisted in incomprehensible shapes. As I walked down the length of the slide, I realized that it was far more than the bus station. The cascade extended all the way down the valley, 2 miles or more, and much of lower Leh was, well, utterly ruined. I saw a schoolyard buried under 8 feet of mud, its basketball hoops just managing to peer over the top of the slide. I saw bloated cows tossed about, and one lonely, dazed donkey, wandering through the wreckage, covered in dried mud and bleating sadly, perhaps just to hear the sound of his own voice. And yes, I saw bodies. Leh hospital was quickly lined with them. Bulldozers lifted splayed-limbed victims out of heaps and heaps of mud.

Josh has already spent days helping dig out from under the wreckage. He asks that if you want to help in the relief efforts, you can make a donation to the Ladakhi Buddhist Association, the main relief organization on the ground, at www.gadenrelief.org.