While there is going to be a lot of breathless blogging by the Right today on a poll that shows former Rep. Rob Simmons leading Senator Chris Dodd 43-42 in a Quinnipiac Poll, I think this is probably more important:

Dodd, whose approval ratings were in the negative range on Feb. 10, have rebounded slightly. Connecticut voters approve 49 to 44 percent of the job Dodd is doing compared to the 41 to 48 percent approval rating he received on Feb. 10.

The head to head shows a statistical tie with Simmons, which is obviously not good news for Dodd. But Dodd moving +12 in one month in job approval is more important 20 months out. Job approval is relevant. I don’t know how this move can be described as “slight.”

If you want to pull something relevant from the head to head with Simmons, it’s that Dodd is getting killed by Simmons among independents:

In a 2010 Dodd-Simmons match up, Democrats back Dodd 74 to 15 percent while Simmons leads 80 to 10 percent amongst Republicans and 49 to 32 percent among independent voters.

This is pretty much how we should be looking at numbers in these polls, per how we look at these numbers with every other Senate incumbent in America. Last month’s Q-Poll was either an outlier for Dodd’s approval numbers, or Dodd has done phenomenal work in the last month to repair his image in state, despite rabid attacks by Kevin Rennie and the GOP in Connecticut. I can’t make a judgment as to how to read that based solely on the top line release, but either situation reflects much better on Dodd’s chances for reelection than Simmons’ chances for beating Dodd.

Moreover, Dodd is way ahead of other possible challengers.

Sen. Dodd leads State Sen. Sam Caligiuri 47 – 34 percent and tops CNBC-TV host Larry Kudlow 46 – 34 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds.

As counter intuitive as it sounds, I think this poll is good news. All the focus has been and should remain on job approval until there are actual candidates in the race. Dodd has moved back close to the 50% mark for job approval, a standard benchmark for incumbent reelection chances. If he has another good month, he can get back over 50%. I like his chances for reelection significantly better with his approval at or above 50%, regardless of what this head to head with Simmons says. He’s also not going to be threatened by Caligiuri or Kudlow, which should make his job easier in that he can focus on one opponent at a time.

It’s still 20 months from the 2010 Connecticut Senate election and anyone making pronouncements about an impending defeat for Chris Dodd are not thinking honestly about this race. No doubt Dodd is going to be one of the top targets for Republicans in 2010, perhaps the only incumbent Democrat who will face a serious challenge. Republican bloggers and the NRSC are already gunning for him. But Dodd being a target doesn’t mean we get to misread polls or go breathless in anticipation of Simmons beating him. Or rather, I encourage Republicans to presume this race is done for because Simmons has a 1% edge in a poll with a 2.8% margin of error twenty months ahead of the election as Dodd’s job approval ratings are climbing double digits. Be my guest. But I’m going to take this poll, look at the rising job approval and say that maybe Chris Dodd will have to campaign a lot harder than in 2004, but I’m not ready to hand this seat to Rob Simmons by a long shot.

Disclosure: I was proud to work on Chris Dodd’s presidential campaign, but I no longer work for Senator Dodd.