Regardless of any Waterloo-like stands in Florida, Rudy Giuliani is done. Why? Because his “momentum-proof” tri-state area firewall is gone, as best signified by the fact that Giuliani is now significantly behind John McCain in New York, according to the Sienna poll. Trend in parentheses (PDF link).
McCain: 36% (15%)
Giuliani: 24% (48%)
Romney: 10% (7%)
It gets worse: Last month, Giuliani was up 33% on McCain in the Sienna poll. That’s right, there was a 45% swing in New York state against Rudy Giuliani in one month. New York Republicans don’t even like Giuliani any more:
For the first time in a Siena poll, Giuliani had a higher unfavorable rate _ 48 percent _ than favorable just six years after the Sept. 11 attacks. McCain was viewed favorably by 56 percent of New Yorkers.
Another NY poll out today from Marist gives McCain an even bigger lead: 34% to 19%.
Giuliani campaign manager Mike DuHaime had previously called Giuliani’s leads in New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut “momentum proof.”
“Some of those leads are momentum-proof at this point,” he said. He stressed Giuliani’s margins in the New York tri-state area of New Jersey, New York and Connecticut versus what he called Romney’s “precarious” lead in New Hampshire where he is known, having been governor of neighboring Massachusetts.
Giuliani now trails in New York (by 12-15%), New Jersey (by 2-4%), Connecticut (by 23%), and Pennsylvania (by 16%), another February 5th neighbor to New York.
If Giuliani is going to lose badly in New York, Connecticut, and Pennsylvania, and likely lose in New Jersey as well, he has no base of support. His only hope is in Florida.
So, how does Florida look for Rudy? Not good – he trails in every poll that’s come out in the last ten days save one, which shows a statistical tie. The Insider Advantage poll from last Thursday showed Giuliani with a one point lead over McCain and Romney. The Rasmussen poll out today has him down five to Romney.
As I said above, Rudy Giuliani is done.
Hold Fast 